DrunkenBlog

Of FUD (aka, Apple and x86 Questions, Part 7)

Joachim writes:

<--snipped-->

Anyway I just read an interview with another sony bigwig here and his talk of an OS for the PS3 was weird. Maybe I am wanting it too much, but do you see a collaboration with Sony and Apple for an OS? I mean the whole WWDC year of HD and the PS3 can do 1080p HD and that twice with dual monitor connections! Plus this would get them off the hook with IBM and put the hardware in Sony's hand just like the how they are putting the peripheral chips (north & south bridge) in Intels.

qutoes from the article that I like:
"Of course, the PS3 can run Linux. If Linux can run, so can Lindows. Other PC Operating Systems can run too, such as Windows and Tiger (Max OS X 10.4), if the publishers want [them] to do so. Maybe a new OS might come out."

"The user interface will also get interesting. In the case of the PC, users will have to wait for years between XP's UI to Longhorn's. But the PS3's UI will evolve much faster."

<--snipped-->

Oh my, did Sony see you coming a mile away...

Marketing and PR have been around long enough that there are well defined tactics used for different situations. Rarely are they revised, although they can be tweaked, but this is textbook. I.E., a common tactic is spitballing, where you throw things out there just to see what will or won't fly, what has interest and what looks like it'll be a dud.

Sometimes companies will even leak a rumor themselves in various ways, and if people are into it it's bumped up the list on the possible feature roster, and if people are going nuts, things are revised and they can then say "We'd never do something so stupid, don't believe what you hear on..."

What Sony is doing here isn't spitballing, or at least not entirely, but rather common garden-variety FUD, aka "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt." Sony kicks ass at FUD usually, because consoles only come out every x-umpteen years and releases between the competition have traditionally been somewhat staggered, and you have to give people a reason not to buy that shiny new console shipping months before yours.

However, over time just about every group of marketing geniuses have found themselves with a conference room and a situation that's ripe to introduce FUD. In fact, it's used so often and so pervasively by technology companies -- because their situations have a habit of rhyming -- that a manager's bonus might as well be set by how well they can spin a web FUD that looks for all the world like an inviting place to sit down.

When people think of FUD, they often jump to easy examples where competitor A jumps ahead of competitor B with a product that is taking off, and competitor B decides they have to slow their momentum somehow. I.E., "Yeah, if you wanted you could go buy Acme Widget, but our Ronco Widget will be out in a month and have all the features of Acme Widget plus these others and will be much cheaper."

Of course, competitor B has just started their product when they saw the success of competitor A, and there is no way they'll have it out in a month, and there is no way they'll have it out in a month, and they probably won't have the features, but they'll hopefully slow the momentum of their competitor. The idea is that enough people -- hopefully through the media regurgitating press releases -- will think twice about the product to buy you some time.

This is an accurate example of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, but it's not the whole story. While we've come to hear the term FUD associated with the above scenario, it's much more insidious than that and while marketers are aware of it the general public often isn't. FUD, as it's most base level, is simply strewing negative, false, vague, twisted, or inaccurate information about a competitor's product or vaguely twisting the mindshare of an upcoming product to have the same effect. In most cases, something like "Vapor-ware" is a form of FUD.

While the above scenario is about a competitor's product that's already out, one can also find oneself in a situation where it'd be tempting to try to try the FUD tactic towards a competitor's product that is on its way.

Microsoft is very, very good when it comes to FUD, and got a big name for employing it early, often and to great effect. Amusingly enough, they've actually backed away from using it because they've entered a sort of permanent incumbency in their core markets: Operating Systems and Office. No one can touch them there right now.

Microsoft rarely talks about Apple, and when they do they generally don't do so negatively, even though I think there are areas they could just ream them on. They don't do it because if you're polling at 95%, and some little crazy guy is in the corner saying they want to do xyz, even responding to them lends them more legitimacy than they really have.

If you extrapolate the analogy out to where Microsoft is a party with multiple elections in different districts going on, there you can see some FUD. They're not above strewing FUD around where Linux is making inroads (especially the server arena, where they're both competing to chew on Unix), or the media players, or PDAs, or the Xbox.

However, even there I think you're seeing Microsoft being much more judicious with FUD than they have previously, to avoid it backfiring, but more on that in a moment.

Apple is, for all intents and purposes, in the running with SCO for the title of "King of FUD" at the moment. 90% of their entire marketing effort for Tiger was built around FUD, almost as though they couldn't quite figure out how to actually market the few end-user features they were throwing into it.

The marketing of Tiger was less about what was in it than about bashing Microsoft's future product in vague and often inaccurate ways, and the Mac base cheered. This is like politics -- it's a dirty trick unless it's your side doing it, and then it's "justifiable" or "completely different situation".

Which isn't to say that FUD didn't get picked up in places. Many of the faithful took it as bullet points to bander about in the forums, but I think they also caused a lot of people to roll their eyes. It was so over the top and lacking in context they were just setting themselves up to get nailed in a backlash after the cheering of the faithful and some news reports (Apple and others have a habit of paying to repeat their blurbs), they wisely pulled back.

Amusingly enough, while Apple was all about FUD with Tiger, you'd be within your rights to contrast this with most of their marketing for the iPod, which is primarily centered around what it does, while many of their competitors define their products by the iPod and liberally employ FUD.

I could go on giving examples of companies employing FUD in various ways, as even those in the OSS camp try it (generally poorly, as with anything marketing related), but it's worth mentioning that like most things FUD works in cycles. If you miss where it's beginning or ending you're going to feel some pain -- you can't FUD all the time, or you run the risk of the story becoming about you FUD'ing and why you might feel the need.

It'll probably never go away, though. The thing about FUD is, like most dirty tricks, it's highly effective when employed correctly.This again is very reminiscent of politics -- and just like politics, since everyone is doing the dirty tricks, after awhile people can get mightily sick of it and mightily turned off by those perpetuating it. Taking the high road rarely gets you more points than sinking towards FUD, but it does sometimes. Even then, it doesn't last forever and the cycle starts anew.

Yes, it can be incredibly depressing.

To get back around to Sony, and your original question:

Maybe I am wanting it too much, but do you see a collaboration with Sony and Apple for an OS?

-- snipped--

qutoes from the article that I like:
"Of course, the PS3 can run Linux. If Linux can run, so can Lindows. Other PC Operating Systems can run too, such as Windows and Tiger (Max OS X 10.4), if the publishers want [them] to do so. Maybe a new OS might come out."

Anything is possible, but many things are also highly, highly unlikely.

Sony just throws stuff like this out (O gawd, what they spewed about the Emotion Engine...) there to try to compete in the console mindshare battlefield with the Xbox (Nintendo is really only a threat in handhelds now), which has been slowly but surely picking up steam in the living room.

You'll hopefully spend your evenings pondering and hyping its future offering and what it may or may not do -- instead of picking up an Xbox or gorging on its hype. It's all just forms of FUD, and if you pay it mind, its working.

When you follow politics long enough, you go through phases, but eventually you start tuning out what was said and look at the tactics employed in it being said, because that's what necessary to have any clue as to what's going on. We passed the same point with technology companies long ago.

 Posted by drunkenbatman
    September 30, 2005, at 11:22 PM